С помощью компьютерного моделирования американские ученые показали, насколько опасно может быть искусственное регулирование климата на Земле с помощью геоинженерных технологий. Результаты исследования, опубликованные в журнале Nature Ecology & Evolution, говорят о том, что такие меры приведут к существенному смещению климатических зон, а последствия этого могут оказаться катастрофическими для некоторых видов живых организмов и снизят биоразнообразие на планете.
Ученые уже давно рассматривают в качестве одной из возможных мер борьбы с негативными изменениями климата на Земле (речь в том числе идет и о глобальном потеплении) использование технологий геоинженерии, или искусственного управления климатом. При таком подходе в первую очередь предлагается изменение в химическом составе атмосферы и мирового океана. Кроме того, рассматривался и метод солнечной геоинженерии, который в теории должен помочь снизить объем поступающего на планету солнечного света за счет распыления в атмосфере специальных аэрозольных соединений. Печальная правда заключается в том, что, помимо положительных изменений, такие меры могут нести за собой серьезные негативные последствия, причем не только для климата, но и для многих живых существ на Земле.
Для оценки возможных рисков от использования солнечной геоинженерии американские климатологи под руководством профессора Мэрилендского университета Кристофера Трисоса провели моделирование возможных смещений климатических областей во время начала и конечной фазы проведения геоинженерных процедур.
Для того чтобы выяснить уровень влияния происходящих при этом изменений на зоны максимального биоразнообразия, ученые измерили изменение климатических скоростей — отношения скорости изменения климатических параметров (главным образом, температуры и количества осадков) с течением времени к пространственному градиенту того же параметра. Этот показатель говорит о том, как быстро и в каком направлении будут смещаться те или иные климатические зоны, и помогает предсказать, куда и с какой скоростью придется мигрировать тем или иным видам морских и наземных живых существ.
Исследователи рассмотрели сценарий, при котором геоинженерные процессы по распылению в атмосфере постепенно запускают в течение 10 лет (с 2020 по 2030 год) и с начальным уровнем в 5 тараграмм диоксида серы. Затем процесс продолжается в течение следующих 40 лет, а затем в течение следующих 10 лет происходит постепенное прекращение распыления.
Климатические скорости (для температуры и уровня осадков) ученые оценили для всей поверхности планеты, в первую очередь обращая внимание на те зоны, в которых сейчас отмечается наибольшее биоразнообразие видов (таких как тропические зоны океанов или бассейн Амазонки). Полученные данные климатологи сравнили со сценарием умеренного естественного развития климата.
Анализ данных показал, что запуск и продолжение распыления аэрозолей действительно приведет к снижению климатических скоростей относительно текущего уровня и стабилизации климата, однако прекращение этого распыления может привести к резкому ускорению температурных зон. Скорость этих изменений будет составлять порядка 10 километров в год. А это почти в два раза больше, чем в настоящее время, и, согласно прогнозам на будущее, при естественных сценариях изменения климата, без использования геоинженерных технологий. Кроме того, исследование показало более чем в два раза быстрое смещение осадочных зон.
При этом наиболее чувствительными к температурным изменениям окажутся океаны в тропических зонах, а максимальная скорость смещения осадочных зон, согласно результатам моделирования, будет наблюдаться в области бассейна Амазонки и в Сибири.
Так будет выглядеть карта смещения климатических зон при прекращении геоинженерных процедур (сверху: G4 — геоинженерный сценарий, RCP4,5 — естественный сценарий). Снизу показана карта зон, в которых в результате прекращения геоинженерии осадочные и температурные зоны станут смещаться в разные стороны (с углом расхождения более 90 градусов)
При этом данные моделирования показали, что при резком прекращении распыления аэрозолей примерно на 30 процентах суши сдвиг температурных и осадочных зон будет происходить в разных направлениях (отличия более чем на 90 градусов).
Общий эффект прекращения распыления аэрозолей будет выглядеть следующим образом: ускорится смещение климатических зон и уровень расхождения осадочных и температурных областей, что приведет к значительному изменению ныне существующих экосистем и, вероятнее всего, станет причиной массового вымирания значительного числа животных видов и растений.
Для количественной оценки последствий исследователи сравнили скорость смещения климатических зон с данными о смещении ареалов обитания животных в результате глобального потепления в недавнем прошлом. Сравнение показало, что для большинства животных они примерно в 4-7 раз меньше, чем возможная скорость смещения климатических зон при остановке.
Ученые акцентируют внимание на том, что полученные результаты в очередной раз подтверждают опасность искусственного изменения климата. Если человечество все же решится проводить подобные процедуры, то делать это необходимо с особой осторожностью, предварительно оценив все возможные риски. Риски не только для климата, но и для как таковой жизни на Земле.
Более же ранние исследования показали, что опасность негативных последствий от использования геоинженерных технологий может резко возрасти при неравномерном использовании. Например, использование солнечной геоинженерии только в Южном полушарии может привести к значительному увеличению количества тропических циклонов. Если же геоинженерия будет применяться только в Северном полушарии, то это снизит количество циклонов, но при этом приведет к засухе в Африке.
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A full worldwide for Switzerland since 2011, Rodriguez has earned a hundred and twenty caps for the nation.
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Things would have been different if all of the economic progress would not have been pegged with the buyer spending only without taking into account the strict measure that would have resolved serious points like outsourcing and globalization.
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Cronqvist, Henrik and Siegel, Stephan.
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A financial centre (financial center in American English) or financial hub is a location with a significant concentration of participants in banking, asset management, insurance, and financial markets, with venues and supporting services for these activities to take place.
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Subsequent time you brush your teeth, stop and verify what place your low back is in.
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This explains a number of texts earlier in the game which point out chlorine.
Vårt Land (in Norwegian).
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You should never buy at the bottom, and should always sell too soon.
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Held in early May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., the Derby attracts spectators from all around the world to individuals-watch, eat, drink, showcase their hats, and — oh — watch a horse race.
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They will ask: Who gave you the Teaching?
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The entire injury price vary from US$1.5 to 1.7 billion.
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5, stunning his opponent and the commentators by choosing the French Defence, an opening final seen in a world championship match in 1978 (performed there twice by Viktor Korchnoi; each video games ended in a draw).
If you want to invest in this instrument, then you need a trading account with a stockbroker and your Demat account.
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How margin trading is profitable in a failing market?
In that interval, inventory traders would profit from tendencies driven by pensions of baby boomers and their decreased reliance on Social Safety.
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If the inflation index increased by 10, the principal of the bond would increase to 110 units.
Insecticide: Drench the soil with microbial insecticide, akin to bacillus thuringiensis, more commonly called Bt.
The Owen School moved from Alexander Hall to Management Hall in 1982.
Nevertheless it should even be introduced into consideration that major data dump of China is all set to come back up in the next week so now the primary query is that whether or not this knowledge goes to be pretty much as good as it was thought it’ll be.
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Hence, professionals such as doctors, lawyers and trained financial professionals need specialized wealth management support.
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If those two overlap, problem solved!
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China’s commodity futures markets have expanded product ranges and deepened liquidity pools to cater to the increasingly diverse needs of the nation’s rapidly growing economy.
And at last, Deus Ex is like journey games in that it’s story-driven, linear in narrative construction, and involves character interaction and merchandise accumulation to advance the plot.
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LeBlanc, Leslie (September 3, 2020).
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SS2 will then kick in its rockets and hurtle to the edge of space (around 62 miles, or 100 kilometers) on a parabolic flight.
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Cleaning or disinfecting buildings won’t destroy radioactivity.
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Commodity Research Bureau (CRB).
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This web page was final edited on 4 June 2024, at 21:Forty six (UTC).
Amazon spokesperson, Av Zammit stated that despite these strikes, the corporate remains to be functioning and that enterprise has not been impacted by the sickouts across the county.
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In September 2011, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ordered Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
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If yes, why were they missed out on?
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Protections came with the 1972 passing of the Clean Water Act, and the Schuylkill was designated as the first Pennsylvania Scenic River in 1978.
He first won a contest for schooling with Whall, was then his apprentice between about 1906 and 1912 and later a collaborator.
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Mr. Pate will likely be remembered for his lifelong lay service with Park Place, Bethel and Bay Area Baptist Church.
Your insurance provider will set an age limit, after which you can claim funds and receive the pension amount.
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An expert helps in evaluating the existing investment and find out whether they are still suitable to meet the business goal.
Some international locations, including Iran, Sudan, and Pakistan, have taken steps to eradicate curiosity from their monetary methods.
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For example, users might not need to pay a monthly fee for access to native data and telematics navigation.
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The U.S. authorities fought back.
We’ll look at 10 of the most notorious foreclosure frauds in recent years, including both cases that made headlines and widespread issues that put homeowners at risk.
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In 2014, SBAI grew to become an affiliate member of Worldwide Group of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) and in 2016 SBAI and International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF) agreed to interact in mutual observership.
Modi described the new laws as a “watershed moment” for the agricultural sector.
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As an alternative, William advised his father to take his medication and retire from office.
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In essence, it acts like an actimetry sensor.
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